:Product: 19980627RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jun 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 178 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 JUN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8253 (N17E12)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 0121Z, AS WELL AS OCCASIONAL C-CLASS
FLARES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE REGION EXHIBITS A SLIGHT DEGREE OF
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND A FIELD OF BRIGHT PLAGE. TWO NEW REGIONS
WERE ASSIGNED: 8259 (N25E73) AND 8260 (S21E74). THE LIMBS WERE
QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER, REGION 8253 MAY GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL M-CLASS EVENT AT
SOME POINT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 JUN-30 JUN
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 JUN 115
PREDICTED   28 JUN-30 JUN  120/120/125
90 DAY MEAN        27 JUN 107
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JUN  029/048
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JUN  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JUN-30 JUN  005/008-005/008-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 JUN-30 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01