:Product: 19980701RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 182 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8253 (N18W43) PRODUCED
TWO C-CLASS FLARES: A C1/SF AT 30/2301Z, AND A C6/SF AT 01/1840Z
WITH A TYPE II SWEEP AND MODERATE DECAMETRIC BURSTS INCLUDING 110
SFU AT 2695 MHZ. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED TYPE II ALSO OCCURRED
WITH A C1 FLARE AT 01/1020Z. REGION 8259 (N27E25) PRODUCED A C1/SF
AT 01/0009Z. THIS REGION EXHIBITED SOME GROWTH AND DEVELOPED
MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION 8256 (S23W08) PRODUCED A C3/1F
AT 01/1814Z WITH A DISAPPEARING FILAMENT. THE REMAINING FIVE REGIONS
WERE MOSTLY STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. SEVERAL OF THE EXISTING REGIONS ARE CAPABLE OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET,
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 JUL-04 JUL
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 JUL 127
PREDICTED   02 JUL-04 JUL  126/126/126
90 DAY MEAN        01 JUL 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 JUN  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 JUL  004/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 JUL-04 JUL  010/012-010/012-012/014
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 JUL-04 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/30
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/02/02