:Product: 19980702RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 183 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1
FLARE OCCURRED AT 02/0122Z. THE ONLY OTHER REGION TO FLARE THIS
PERIOD WAS REGION 8256 (S24W19), PRODUCING A B8/SF AT 02/1242Z.
REGION 8260 (S24E12) EXHIBITED FREQUENT PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS LATE IN
THE PERIOD. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN STABLE OR SHOWED SOME
DECAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. THOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVE REGIONS HAVE STABILIZED OR DECAYED
THIS PERIOD, THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ISOLATED C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE ACTIVE
PERIOD BETWEEN 02/00-03Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS
ARE EXPECTED ON 4 AND 5 JULY IN RESPONSE TO THE C6/SF ON 1 JULY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 JUL-05 JUL
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 JUL 120
PREDICTED   03 JUL-05 JUL  120/118/116
90 DAY MEAN        02 JUL 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 JUL  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 JUL  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 JUL-05 JUL  010/012-015/015-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 JUL-05 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/35/35
MINOR STORM           05/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/40/40
MINOR STORM           05/25/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/10/10