:Product: 19980703RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 184 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 03/0112Z WITH ASSOCIATED
MINOR RADIO BURSTS AND A WEAK TYPE IV SWEEP. THE LIKELY SOURCE FOR
THIS EVENT WAS REGION 8256 (S24W33) WHICH GREW CONSIDERABLY IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THOUGH STILL SMALL IN WHITE LIGHT AREA, THIS REGION
WENT FROM THREE VISIBLE SPOTS YESTERDAY TO 24 TODAY AND EXHIBITED
FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PLAGE FIELD WHILE PRODUCING THREE SMALL
C-CLASS SUBFLARES. RECENT MAG MAPS SUGGEST A BETA GAMMA
CONFIGURATION. REGION 8253 (N17W74) CONTINUES TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
SUBFLARES AS IT NEARS THE WEST LIMB. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN
QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM REGION
8256.  THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ALREADY EXIST IN
THIS REGION AND FURTHER GROWTH IS EXPECTED.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE PERIOD
OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 03/00-03Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
BY LATE 4 JUL THROUGH 5 JUL AS A RESULT OF THE C6/SF ON 1 JUL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 JUL-06 JUL
CLASS M    35/40/40
CLASS X    05/10/10
PROTON     05/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 JUL 128
PREDICTED   04 JUL-06 JUL  128/130/130
90 DAY MEAN        03 JUL 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JUL  009/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUL  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUL-06 JUL  015/015-015/012-012/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 JUL-06 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                45/45/30
MINOR STORM           20/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/50/35
MINOR STORM           25/25/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05