:Product: 19980704RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 185 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW TO MODERATE. ALMOST ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY WAS PRODUCED BY REGION 8256 (S23W47). THIS REGION HAS
INCREASED IN PLAGE AREA AND SPOT COUNT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS,
CURRENTLY AN 18 SPOT DRO-BETA. IT HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS
EVENTS AND SUBFLARES AS WELL AS AN M-CLASS EVENT WITH A
CORRESPONDING SN FLARE AT 04/1216UT AND A NEAR M-CLASS EVENT (C9.7)
WITH A 1N FLARE AT 04/1643UT. THE ONLY OTHER REGION SHOWING ANY
ACTIVITY WAS 8260 (S23W14) WHICH PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUBFLARE AT
04/0739UT. IT HAS SHOWN ONLY MINOR PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS SINCE THAT
TIME. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8256 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8260
COULD ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE PERIOD OF
ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRING BETWEEN 03/00-03UT. THE GREATER THAN
2MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE INCREASED TO NEAR
THRESHOLD LEVELS AT 04/1900UT AND REMAINED THERE FOR THE REST OF THE
REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FILED IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 JUL-07 JUL
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 JUL 129
PREDICTED   05 JUL-07 JUL  130/130/126
90 DAY MEAN        04 JUL 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JUL  011/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JUL  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JUL-07 JUL  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 JUL-07 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           20/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/40/40
MINOR STORM           25/25/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05