:Product: 19980705RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 186 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. MOST OF TODAY'S ACTIVITY
ORIGINATED FROM REGIONS 8256 (S24W60) AND 8264 (N17E15). REGION 8256
HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN PLAGE AREA OR SPOT COUNT, HOWEVER
ACTIVITY LEVEL HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY. MAXIMUM
ACTIVITY FROM THIS REGION WAS A C1/SF EVENT AT 05/1824UT. REGION
8264 HAS SHOWN INCREASED ACTIVITY TODAY WITH A C7/2F EVENT OCCURRING
AT 05/1144UT. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET. TWO NEW REGIONS
WERE NUMBERED: 8265 (N20E44) AND 8266 (N24E73).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. BOTH REGIONS 8256 AND 8264 CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 JUL-08 JUL
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 JUL 124
PREDICTED   06 JUL-08 JUL  130/126/122
90 DAY MEAN        05 JUL 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JUL  011/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JUL  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JUL-08 JUL  015/012-015/010-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 JUL-08 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/40
MINOR STORM           25/25/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05