:Product: 19980706RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
::::::::::  CORRECTED COPY  ::::::::::
SDF NUMBER 187 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE C-CLASS X-RAY EVENT
OCCURRED AT 06/1400UT. REGIONS 8256 (S25W74) AND 8264 (N16W01) SHOWED
MINOR ACTIVITY AND SOME PLAGE POINT BRIGHTENING BUT CONTINUE TO
DECLINE IN INTENSITY. THE REST OF THE REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGIONS 8256 AND 8264 COULD POSSIBLY PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO ACTIVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 JUL-09 JUL
CLASS M    10/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 JUL 121
PREDICTED   07 JUL-09 JUL  120/118/116
90 DAY MEAN        06 JUL 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JUL  012/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JUL  018/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JUL-09 JUL  015/015-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 JUL-09 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/30
MINOR STORM           25/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05