:Product: 19980709RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 190 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. ONE WAS A C1 AT 08/2313UT
AND THE OTHER WAS A C2 AT 09/1117UT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXISTING CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS  AFTER 09/1500UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 JUL-12 JUL
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 JUL 114
PREDICTED   10 JUL-12 JUL  112/110/108
90 DAY MEAN        09 JUL 107
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 JUL  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JUL  008/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JUL-12 JUL  005/005-005/010-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 JUL-12 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05


NOTICE: GOES-9 IS EXPERIENCING SEVERE ATTITUDE CONTROL PROBLEMS
THAT OCCASIONALLY CAUSE THE LOSS OF X-RAY SENSOR DATA. GOES-10 IS
BEING BROUGHT OUT OF STORAGE MODE AND WILL BE OPERATIONAL WITHIN
THE NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE INTERMITTENT OR COMPLETE LOSS OF
GOES-9 X-RAY DATA BEFORE GOES-10 BECOMES OPERATIONAL. GOES-8 DATA
REMAIN VALID.