:Product: 19980710RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 191 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1
X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 10/0410UT. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED
TODAY AS REGION 8268 (N18W07) AND REGION 8269 (N19E68) AND REGION
8270 (S19E66).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 JUL-13 JUL
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 JUL 109
PREDICTED   11 JUL-13 JUL  107/106/105
90 DAY MEAN        10 JUL 107
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 JUL  010/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 JUL  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 JUL-13 JUL  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 JUL-13 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05


NOTICE: GOES-9 IS EXPERIENCING SEVERE ATTITUDE CONTROL PROBLEMS
THAT OCCASIONALLY CAUSE THE LOSS OF X-RAY SENSOR DATA. GOES-10 IS
BEING BROUGHT OUT OF STORAGE MODE AND WILL BE OPERATIONAL WITHIN
THE NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE INTERMITTENT OR COMPLETE LOSS OF
GOES-9 X-RAY DATA BEFORE GOES-10 BECOMES OPERATIONAL. GOES-8 DATA
REMAIN VALID.