:Product: 19980711RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 192 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 8263 (S22W72)
PRODUCED A C1/SF FLARE AT 11/0441Z. REGION 8264 (N16W70) PRODUCED
THE LARGEST EVENT WITH A C4/SF FLARE AT 11/1250Z. A NEW REGION WAS
NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8271 (S09E63).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED C-CLASS
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 JUL-14 JUL
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 JUL 108
PREDICTED   12 JUL-14 JUL  106/105/104
90 DAY MEAN        11 JUL 107
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JUL  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JUL  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JUL-14 JUL  010/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 JUL-14 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05


NOTICE:  GOES-9 IS EXPERIENCING SEVERE ATTITUDE CONTROL PROBLEMS
THAT OCCASIONALLY CAUSE THE LOSS OF X-RAY SENSOR DATA. GOES-10 IS
BEING BROUGHT OUT OF STORAGE MODE AND WILL BE OPERATIONAL WITHIN
THE NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE INTERMITTENT OR COMPLETE LOSS OF
GOES-9 X-RAY DATA BEFORE GOES-10 BECOMES OPERATIONAL. GOES-8 DATA
REMAIN VALID.