:Product: 19980712RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 193 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME VERY LOW. ONLY SMALL B-CLASS
FLUCTUATIONS WERE OBSERVED. CURRENT DISK REGIONS WERE PREDOMINANTLY
STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LOW TO
LOW. SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8269 (N18E45)
AND 8270 (S20E42).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MID-LATITUDES WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
PLANETARY INDICES WERE QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE MOST DISTURBED
PERIOD WAS FROM 12/0600-1200Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 JUL-15 JUL
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 JUL 099
PREDICTED   13 JUL-15 JUL  097/096/095
90 DAY MEAN        12 JUL 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JUL  011/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JUL  008/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JUL-15 JUL  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 JUL-15 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01

NOTICE: GOES-9 CONTINUES TO OPERATE AND THE X-RAY SENSOR REMAINS POINTED
AT THE SUN. GOES-10 WILL BECOME OPERATIONAL THE WEEK OF 13 JUL AND WILL
BEGIN ITS MOVEMENT TO 135W LONGITUDE SHORTLY THEREAFTER TO REPLACE GOES-9.