:Product: 19980713RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 194 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. FREQUENT B-CLASS
ENHANCEMENTS OCCURRED, PRIMARILY FROM REGION 8270 (S21E27). THIS
REGION GREW SLOWLY DURING THE PERIOD AND EXHIBITED SLIGHTLY MIXED
POLARITIES. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED TYPE II RADIO BURST OCCURRED
AT 13/0935Z. NO X-RAY BURST OR OTHER ACTIVITY OF NOTE COINCIDED WITH
THE TYPE II.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LOW.
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN REGION 8270 SHOULD RESULT IN OCCASIONAL
C-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET. ISOLATED UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 JUL-16 JUL
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 JUL 106
PREDICTED   14 JUL-16 JUL  107/108/110
90 DAY MEAN        13 JUL 107
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 JUL  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JUL  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JUL-16 JUL  005/008-005/010-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 JUL-16 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01


NOTICE: GOES-9 CONTINUES TO OPERATE AND THE X-RAY SENSOR REMAINS POINTED
AT THE SUN. GOES-10 WILL BECOME OPERATIONAL THE WEEK OF 13 JUL AND WILL
BEGIN ITS MOVEMENT TO 135W LONGITUDE SHORTLY THEREAFTER TO REPLACE GOES-9.