:Product: 19980714RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 195 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8270 (S17E15)
PRODUCED AN M4/1B FLARE AT 14/1259Z. A 250 F.U. BURST AT 2695 MHZ
AND STRONG TYPE IV ACCOMPANIED THIS IMPULSIVE EVENT. A TYPE II BURST
MAY WELL HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS EVENT BUT WAS PREDOMINANTLY
OBSCURED BY THE TYPE IV. OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C2 FLARES OCCURRED
AT 14/0225Z AND 14/1903Z. AT 14/1100Z REGION 8269 (N18E17) PRODUCED
A C1/SF FLARE. REGION 8270 IS SMALL AND RELATIVELY STABLE IN AREA
BUT POSSESSES TIGHT MAGNETIC GRADIENTS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MAGNETOGRAPHS INDICATE A DELTA CONFIGURATION IN THE CENTER OF THE
REGION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS
FROM REGION 8270 ARE POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER, ONLY SLIGHT MAGNETIC
SIMPLIFICATION IN THIS DIMINUTIVE REGION WOULD RESULT IN A LARGE
DECREASE OF THAT POSSIBILITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET FOR 15 JUL. PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON 15-16 JUL WITH PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS POSSIBLE
DURING THAT PERIOD DUE TO THE M4/1B FLARE MENTIONED ABOVE. THE LACK
OF MASS EJECTION INFORMATION FROM THE NOW CRIPPLED SOHO SATELLITE
LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 JUL-17 JUL
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 JUL 103
PREDICTED   15 JUL-17 JUL  103/103/104
90 DAY MEAN        14 JUL 107
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JUL  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JUL  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JUL-17 JUL  005/008-010/015-012/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 JUL-17 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/25/30
MINOR STORM           05/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/30/30
MINOR STORM           05/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05

NOTICE: GOES-9 CONTINUES TO OPERATE. HOWEVER, ONE REACTION
WHEEL IS ABOVE TEMPERATURE AND CURRENT DRAW LIMITS. FAILURE
COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME WITH LOSS OF XRS DATA. GOES-10 IS
NEARING OPERATIONAL STATUS.