:Product: 19980715RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 196 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD
WAS A C6/SF WITH MINOR CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURSTS FROM REGION 8270
(S21W00). REGION 8270 ALSO PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES.
SLIGHT DECAY OCCURRED IN THIS REGION BUT SMALL AREAS OF MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY REMAINED. NEW REGION 8272 (S28E56) PRODUCED A C5/SF AT
15/1046Z. THIS REGION IS A SMALL CLASS B SUNSPOT GROUP. NEW REGION
8273 (S27E22) EMERGED AT A MODERATE PACE NEAR THE BASE OF AN
EXISTING FILAMENT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY LOW WITH REGIONS 8270 AND 8273 PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
C-CLASS FLARES.  REGION 8270 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT BUT THAT POSSIBILITY IS DECREASING AS THE
REGION DECAYS. PAST STATISTICAL STUDIES INDICATE THE PRE-EXISTING
FILAMENT NEAR EMERGING REGION 8273 COULD ERUPT IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
IF ERUPTION OCCURS, IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT A LARGE SPOTLESS FLARE
WOULD OCCUR SINCE THE MAGNETIC FIELD STRENGTHS AROUND THE FILAMENT
ARE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
BECOME QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 16-17 JUL. ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT PERIOD AS A RESULT OF THE M4/1B
FLARE ON 14 JUL. PREDOMINANTLY QUIET LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
ON 18 JUL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 JUL-18 JUL
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 JUL 105
PREDICTED   16 JUL-18 JUL  107/108/109
90 DAY MEAN        15 JUL 107
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JUL  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JUL  002/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JUL-18 JUL  010/013-012/010-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 JUL-18 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/10
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/10
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01

NOTICE: GOES-9 CONTINUES TO OPERATE AND XRS DATA HAVE
BEEN CONTINUOUS. FAILURE COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME. GOES-10
IS NEARING OPERATIONAL STATUS.