:Product: 19980716RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 197 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  NEW REGION 8275 (N16E64)
WAS NUMBERED TODAY.  SEVERAL SUNSPOT GROUPS CONTRIBUTE TO THE NEAR
C-CLASS BACKGROUND AND HAVE THE POSSIBILITY TO GENERATE LOW M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM REGIONS 8273 AND
8274.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS.  THE CAUSE OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE A
GEO-EFFECTIVELY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.  SOLAR WIND SPEEDS ROSE
FROM 300 KM/S NEAR THE START OF THE UT DAY TO NEARLY 700 KM/S FROM
06-1400 UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 JUL-19 JUL
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 JUL 106
PREDICTED   17 JUL-19 JUL  106/107/108
90 DAY MEAN        16 JUL 107
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JUL  002/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JUL  025/040
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JUL-19 JUL  015/018-012/012-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 JUL-19 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           20/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05


NOTICE:  GOES-9 CONTINUES TO OPERATE AMD XRS DATA HAVE
BEEN CONTINUOUS. FAILURE COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME.
GOES-10 IS NEARING OPERATIONAL STATUS.