:Product: 19980717RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 198 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW.  THERE HAS BEEN
SIGNIFICANT GROWTH AND DECAY IN SEVERAL REGIONS OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS.  TWO OR THREE SMALL DSFS HAVE TAKEN OFF AS WELL.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.  SEVERAL REGIONS ON THE DISK HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  ENERGETIC ELECTRONS
ROSE TO HIGH LEVELS AFTER 1400Z TODAY.  THE SOLAR WIND SPEEDS
DECLINED TO NORMAL LEVELS AND DENSITIES HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY,
INDICATING A DECREASE IN CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS FROM YESTERDAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  A
RETURNING CORONAL EXTENSION WILL BE ROTATING BACK ON TO THE SOLAR
DISK IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 JUL-20 JUL
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 JUL 100
PREDICTED   18 JUL-20 JUL  100/102/104
90 DAY MEAN        17 JUL 107
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JUL  024/037
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JUL  010/011
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JUL-20 JUL  010/010-007/010-007/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 JUL-20 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05


NOTICE:  GOES-9 CONTINUES TO OPERATE AND XRS DATA HAVE BEEN
CONTINUOUS.  FAILURE COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME.  GOES-10 IS
NEARING OPERATIONAL STATUS.