:Product: 19980718RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 199 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  AN UNCORRELATED C2.7 XRAY
FLARE WAS OBSERVED TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO BURST.
THE ESTIMATED SHOCK SPEED WAS 1600 KM/S +/- 400 KM/S.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.  REGION 8266 HAS ROTATED OFF THE SOLAR DISK.  TWO OLD
REGIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.  ENERGETIC ELECTRONS WERE AT HIGH
LEVELS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 JUL-21 JUL
CLASS M    15/15/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 JUL 099
PREDICTED   19 JUL-21 JUL  100/100/104
90 DAY MEAN        18 JUL 107
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 JUL  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 JUL  006/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 JUL-21 JUL  007/008-007/008-007/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 JUL-21 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01

NOTICE:  GOES-9 CONTINUES TO OPERATE AND XRS DATA HAVE BEEN
CONTINUOUS.  FAILURE COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME.  GOES-10 IS
NEARING OPERATIONAL STATUS.