:Product: 19980719RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 200 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. A SINGLE C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENT OCCURRED TODAY AT 1845UT.  REGION 8276 (S19E62) WAS NUMBERED
TODAY.  OTHER REGIONS EXPERIENCED MEASURABLE GROWTH AND DECAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  ENERGETIC ELECTRONS
WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  SOME
ACTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THIS TIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 JUL-22 JUL
CLASS M    15/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 JUL 102
PREDICTED   20 JUL-22 JUL  105/108/110
90 DAY MEAN        19 JUL 107
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JUL  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JUL  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JUL-22 JUL  007/008-010/010-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 JUL-22 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/25
MINOR STORM           05/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05

NOTICE: GOES-9 CONTINUES TO OPERATE AND XRS DATA HAVE BEEN
CONTINUOUS.  FAILURE COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME. GOES-10 IS
NEARING OPERATIONAL STATUS.