:Product: 19980720RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 201 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. MOST OF TODAY'S
OCCASIONAL B-CLASS LEVEL SUBFLARES WERE FROM REGION 8270 (S20W64).
THIS GROUP SHOWED GROWTH DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. TWO NEW REGIONS
EMERGED ON THE DISK TODAY: 8277 AT S13W26 AND 8278 AT S28E52.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY QUIET. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRONS EXCEEDED 1000 PFU DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 JUL-23 JUL
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 JUL 112
PREDICTED   21 JUL-23 JUL  115/115/112
90 DAY MEAN        20 JUL 107
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 JUL  005/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JUL  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JUL-23 JUL  005/009-005/009-005/009
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 JUL-23 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05

NOTICE: GOES-9 CONTINUES TO OPERATE AND XRS DATA HAVE BEEN
CONTINUOUS.  FAILURE COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME. GOES-10 IS
NEARING OPERATIONAL STATUS.