:Product: 19980722RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 203 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8280 (S21E64) PRODUCED
THREE C-CLASS FLARES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS
A C6 AT 0503UT. THIS GROUP IS CLASSIFIED AS AN EKO BETA AND IS THE
LARGEST SUNSPOT REGION ON THE DISK WITH AN AREA OF 370 MILLIONTHS.
REGION 8279 (N27E19) HAS DEVELOPED PENUMBRA ON BOTH LEADER AND
TRAILER PORTIONS OF THE GROUP.  REGION 8277 (S14W55) APPEARS TO HAVE
STOPPED ITS INITIAL GROWTH PHASE AND WAS STABLE. NEW REGION 8282
NEAR N23E70 ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY. A 6 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR S40W31
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 1003Z AND 1028Z TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
BUT THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM
REGION 8280, 8277, OR 8279.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THERE WERE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS SOME HIGH LATITUDE
STATIONS BETWEEN 14-18Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 JUL-25 JUL
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 JUL 114
PREDICTED   23 JUL-25 JUL  115/115/112
90 DAY MEAN        22 JUL 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JUL  011/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JUL  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JUL-25 JUL  010/008-005/007-010/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 JUL-25 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/20
MINOR STORM           10/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/25
MINOR STORM           10/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05