:Product: 19980724RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 205 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED C-CLASS
SUBFLARES OCCURRED, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C8/SF FROM REGION
8280 (S23E40) AT 24/0338UT. REGION 8280 REMAINED THE LARGEST GROUP
ON THE DISK AND RETAINED A SIMPLE BIPOLAR MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. REGION
8282 (N32E43) GREW AT A MODERATE PACE AND PRODUCED ISOLATED
SUBFLARES. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINATELY LOW WITH A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE
FROM EITHER REGION 8280 OR 8282.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WITH
ISOLATED MAJOR STORM PERIODS OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES. ACE
NEAR-REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATED THE ACTIVITY WAS DUE TO A
HIGH SPEED STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE NORTHERN POLAR
CORONAL HOLE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH
LEVELS AT 23/2240UT, THEN VARIED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE CORONAL HOLE-RELATED
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS
TOMORROW. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 JUL-27 JUL
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 JUL 125
PREDICTED   25 JUL-27 JUL  128/130/132
90 DAY MEAN        24 JUL 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 JUL  025/037
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 JUL  022/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 JUL-27 JUL  012/015-010/010-007/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 JUL-27 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01

THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY, 27 JULY: GOES-9
WILL BE TAKEN OUT OF OPERATIONAL STATUS. GOES-8 WILL BECOME
THE PRIMARY SPACECRAFT FOR SWO DATA AND PRODUCTS. GOES-10
WILL BECOME THE SECONDARY SPACECRAFT.