:Product: 19980725RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 206 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT LOW LEVELS. TWO C-CLASS
FLARES OCCURRED, ONE OF WHICH WAS OPTICALLY TIED TO REGION 8280
(S23E27). THIS REGION REMAINED A MODERATELY LARGE, STABLE H-TYPE.
REGION 8282 (N31E31) STABILIZED EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWING A DAY
OF MODERATE GROWTH. THERE WERE SOME SIGNS OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY
WITHIN THE REGION WITH A WEAK DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION REPORTED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINATELY LOW WITH A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE
FROM REGION 8280 OR 8282.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL 25/0500UT.
ACTIVITY INCREASED DURING 25/0500 - 0900UT WITH ACTIVE LEVELS AT
MIDDLE LATITUDES AND ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RETURNED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS AFTER
25/0900UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT HIGH LEVELS
DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 JUL-28 JUL
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 JUL 122
PREDICTED   26 JUL-28 JUL  124/126/128
90 DAY MEAN        25 JUL 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JUL  018/022
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JUL  014/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JUL-28 JUL  010/007-007/007-007/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 JUL-28 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01

THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY, 27 JULY:
GOES-9 WILL BE TAKEN OUT OF OPERATIONAL STATUS. GOES-8 WILL
BECOME THE PRIMARY SPACECRAFT FOR SWO DATA AND PRODUCTS.
GOES-10 WILL BE THE SECONDARY SPACECRAFT.