:Product: 19980726RSGA.txt :Issued: 1998 Jul 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 207 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 JUL 1998 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO VERY LOW LEVELS. REGION 8280 (S24E14) REMAINED A MODERATE-SIZED, STABLE H-TYPE AND PRODUCED A COUPLE B-CLASS SUBFLARES. A WEAK MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION PERSISTED WITHIN REGION 8282 (N32E16), BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SIZE OR STRUCTURE WERE OBSERVED. THIS REGION HAS BEEN STABLE FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LOW WITH A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 8282. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE PERIODS DETECTED AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT HIGH LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS THROUGH 28 JULY, THEN DECLINE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS ON THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 JUL-29 JUL CLASS M 30/30/30 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 26 JUL 119 PREDICTED 27 JUL-29 JUL 120/120/120 90 DAY MEAN 26 JUL 109 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JUL 010/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JUL 006/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JUL-29 JUL 007/007-007/010-007/015 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 JUL-29 JUL A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 10/10/15 MINOR STORM 05/05/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 15/15/20 MINOR STORM 05/05/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY, 27 JULY: GOES-9 WILL BE TAKEN OUT OF OPERATIONAL STATUS. GOES-8 WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SPACECRAFT FOR SWO DATA AND PRODUCTS. GOES-10 WILL BE THE SECONDARY SPACECRAFT.