:Product: 19980727RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 208 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. A SINGLE
B-CLASS X-RAY FLARE WAS DETECTED. REGIONS 8280 (S24E02) AND 8282
(N32E04) WERE STABLE. A WEAK DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION PERSISTED
WITHIN REGION 8282. FOUR NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: 8283 (N27E68),
8284 (N27W24), 8285 (S23E18), AND 8286 (N18E54). ALL OF THE NEW
REGIONS WERE SMALL AND MAGNETICALLY SIMPLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINATELY LOW WITH A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE
FROM REGION 8282.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS.
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON THE FINAL DAY DUE TO
CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS
EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS BY THE SECOND DAY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 JUL-30 JUL
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 JUL 120
PREDICTED   28 JUL-30 JUL  120/120/120
90 DAY MEAN        27 JUL 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JUL  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JUL  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JUL-30 JUL  007/010-007/010-015/018
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 JUL-30 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/40
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01