:Product: 19980728RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 209 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY A FEW SMALL FLARES
OCCURRED. THE LARGEST WAS A B9/SF AT 28/0823Z IN REGION 8280
(S23W11). THE LARGEST, AND POSSIBLY MOST COMPLEX,  SUNSPOT GROUP ON
THE VISIBLE DISK IS REGION 8282 (N31W09). THIS AREA HAS NOT PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IN THE PAST DAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS LEVEL FLARE. MOST
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN REGIONS 8280 AND 8282.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
WAS HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 JUL-31 JUL
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 JUL 121
PREDICTED   29 JUL-31 JUL  120/120/120
90 DAY MEAN        28 JUL 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 JUL  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JUL  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JUL-31 JUL  010/010-010/012-010/018
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 JUL-31 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05