:Product: 19980729RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jul 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 210 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 JUL 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY A FEW X-RAY FLARES
OCCURRED DURING THE PAST DAY; THE LARGEST WAS A B7 AT 28/2137Z. NO
OPTICAL FLARES WERE REPORTED. REGIONS 8280 (S23W24) AND 8282
(N32W27) REMAIN THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUPS ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
NEITHER REGION HAS PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. NEW REGION 8287
(N17W55) WAS NUMBERED. ANOTHER NEW SUNSPOT GROUP, AS YET UNNUMBERED,
APPEARS TO BE ROUNDING THE EAST LIMB NEAR SE 29.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGIONS 8280 AND 8282 ARE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE OF
FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 JUL-01 AUG
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 JUL 120
PREDICTED   30 JUL-01 AUG  120/120/118
90 DAY MEAN        29 JUL 110
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 JUL  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 JUL  006/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 JUL-01 AUG  010/015-010/015-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 JUL-01 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05