:Product: 19980801RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Aug 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 213 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 AUG 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, BASED ON A SINGLE UNCORRELATED
C3 FLARE AT 01/1820Z. IN ADDITION, A B7/1F EVENT WITH STRONG
ASSOCIATED TYPE II/IV RADIO SWEEPS WAS OBSERVED FROM REGION 8288
(S27E25) AT 01/0630Z. REGION 8282 (N30W60) HAS DECREASED IN SIZE AND
SPOT COUNT SINCE YESTERDAY, AND IS CURRENTLY A 4-SPOT 'CA0' BETA
GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. ADDITIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8282,
8283 (N27E04), AND 8288.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS,
WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING RECORDED IN BOULDER DURING
THE INTERVAL 01/1500-1800Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED, WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONDITIONS ON
DAYS TWO AND THREE ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 AUG-04 AUG
CLASS M    10/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 AUG 112
PREDICTED   02 AUG-04 AUG  110/108/108
90 DAY MEAN        01 AUG 110
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 JUL  021/033
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 AUG  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 AUG-04 AUG  015/020-010/015-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 AUG-04 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/15
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01