:Product: 19980802RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Aug 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 214 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 AUG 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO A SINGLE UNCORRELATED C1
X-RAY EVENT AT 02/0513Z. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, 8292
(N24E04), A SMALL B-TYPE GROUP, 8293 (S20E70), A SMALL D-TYPE
GROUP, AND 8294, A SMALL B-TYPE GROUP.  THERE ARE CURRENTLY TEN
ACTIVE REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK, WITH A CUMULATIVE SUNSPOT COUNT
OF ONLY 16 TO 17.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 AUG-05 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 AUG 110
PREDICTED   03 AUG-05 AUG  108/108/106
90 DAY MEAN        02 AUG 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 AUG  017/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 AUG  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 AUG-05 AUG  010/015-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 AUG-05 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01