:Product: 19980804RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Aug 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 216 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 AUG 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT FLARES
OCCURRED. REGION 8293 (S22E48), CURRENTLY A 10-SPOT 'FAO' BETA
GROUP, REMAINS THE MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS,
WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RECORDED DURING THE
INTERVAL 04/0300-0600Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 AUG-07 AUG
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 AUG 116
PREDICTED   05 AUG-07 AUG  117/117/118
90 DAY MEAN        04 AUG 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 AUG  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 AUG  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 AUG-07 AUG  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 AUG-07 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01