:Product: 19980805RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Aug 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 217 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 AUG 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE UNOBSERVED C-CLASS
EVENT OCCURRED AT 1615Z. REGION 8293 (S22E39) GREW IN WHITE LIGHT
AND H-ALPHA, AND IS THE DOMINANT REGION ON THE DISK. IT POSSESSES A
SLIGHT DEGREE OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND BRIGHT PLAGE. NEWLY
NUMBERED REGION 8296 (N16E70) ROTATED FULLY INTO VIEW AS A MATURE
SINGLE SPOT. THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8293 COULD RAISE ACTIVITY LEVELS OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS IF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THERE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 AUG-08 AUG
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 AUG 127
PREDICTED   06 AUG-08 AUG  130/130/135
90 DAY MEAN        05 AUG 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 AUG  008/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 AUG  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 AUG-08 AUG  010/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 AUG-08 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01