:Product: 19980807RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Aug 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 219 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 AUG 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED LOW. THE DAY'S LARGEST FLARE
WAS A C4/SF AT 0722Z FROM REGION 8293 (S22E09). FIVE OTHER REGIONS
CONTRIBUTED SMALL FLARES DURING THE PERIOD, INCLUDING A C2/SF WITH
TYPE II SWEEP AT 1431Z FROM REGION 8296 (N16E44). THE DISK NUMBERS
SEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS, WITH 8293 STILL THE MOST IMPRESSIVE IN WHITE
LIGHT AND H-ALPHA. ITS MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION SIMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT POINT BRIGHTENINGS AND ARCH FILAMENTS
PERSIST. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED; 8298 (N19E16) AND 8299
(N17E74).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT LOW LEVELS. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT IS POSSIBLE FROM REGION
8293.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES, AND UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS AT HIGH
LATITUDES. YESTERDAY'S DISTURBANCE DECLINED DURING THE PERIOD, WITH
THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OCCURRING DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QUIET
TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 AUG-10 AUG
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 AUG 145
PREDICTED   08 AUG-10 AUG  150/150/145
90 DAY MEAN        07 AUG 110
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 AUG  043/069
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 AUG  018/039
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 AUG-10 AUG  010/018-005/010-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 AUG-10 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/20/10
MINOR STORM           20/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05