:Product: 19980808RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Aug 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 220 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 AUG 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE. AN UNOBSERVED M3
X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 0317Z. TYPE II SWEEP AND MODERATE DISCRETE
RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THE EVENT. FREQUENT LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS
FLARES FROM REGIONS 8293 (S22W05) AND 8299 (N16E64) WERE COMMONPLACE
DURING THE PERIOD. BOTH OF THESE REGIONS ARE IMPRESSIVE IN WHITE
LIGHT AND H-ALPHA, AND SHOW NO SIGNS OF ABATING THEIR FLARE
ACTIVITY. IN THE EARLY HOURS OF 08 AUGUST, A VERY PROMINENT,
CENTRALLY-LOCATED FILAMENT MEASURING APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES
DISAPPEARED. THIS FEATURE WAS ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH AND CENTERED NEAR
N30E00. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS WAS A SYMPTOM OF A MASS EJECTION
HIGHER IN THE CORONA. ELSEWHERE, THE REMAINING FOUR SPOTTED REGIONS
EXHIBITED LITTLE ACTIVITY, AND THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8293 AND 8299 ARE BOTH GOOD CANDIDATES FOR
CONTINUED OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SHORT-LIVED SUBSTORMS
OCCURRED DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TODAY'S DSF/CME
EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FIELD BEFORE 12 AUGUST.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 AUG-11 AUG
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 AUG 147
PREDICTED   09 AUG-11 AUG  150/150/145
90 DAY MEAN        08 AUG 110
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 AUG  024/028
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 AUG  013/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 AUG-11 AUG  010/012-005/010-005/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 AUG-11 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/20/20
MINOR STORM           20/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05