:Product: 19980809RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Aug 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 221 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 AUG 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8299 (N15E52)
PRODUCED A M1/1B AT 09/0847Z AND A M3/2B AT 09/1718Z. THIS REGION
ALSO PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. LIMB PROXIMITY HAS MADE
ACCURATE WHITE LIGHT AND MAGNETIC ANALYSIS DIFFICULT. IT'S
IMPOSSIBLE TO DEFINE A DELTA CONFIGURATION AT THIS TIME, BUT MIXED
POLARITIES APPEAR MORE OBVIOUS IN THIS C-CLASS 14 SPOT GROUP. REGION
8293 (S23W18) REMAINS MODERATELY COMPLEX AND PRODUCED A C3/SF AT
08/1626Z. SOME GROWTH WAS EVIDENT IN WHITE LIGHT AS THIS SPOT GROUP,
NUMBERING AS HIGH AS 77 SPOTS, NOW COVERS AN AREA OF 580 MILLIONTHS.
REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY QUIET. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED TODAY, 8300 (S29W01) AND 8301 (S20E71).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. BOTH REGIONS 8293 AND 8299 HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
CONTINUED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ON 12 AUG IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE DSF/CME OBSERVED ON 8 AUG.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 AUG-12 AUG
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 AUG 154
PREDICTED   10 AUG-12 AUG  155/155/150
90 DAY MEAN        09 AUG 111
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 AUG  007/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 AUG  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 AUG-12 AUG  010/010-012/015-025/025
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 AUG-12 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/40
MINOR STORM           05/10/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/50
MINOR STORM           05/15/35
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/10