:Product: 19980810RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Aug 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 222 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 AUG 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGIONS 8293 (S23W30) AND 8299
(N15E40) PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW C-CLASS SUBFLARES. REGION 8293 DECAYED
IN SUNSPOT NUMBER BUT MAINTAINS MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IN A
BETA GAMMA CONFIGURATION. REGION 8299 SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN SIZE OR STRUCTURE. BOTH REGIONS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT FREQUENT
SURGING AND PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS. REGIONS 8297 (N32E22) AND 8298
(N19W24) PRODUCED SMALL SUBFLARES LATE IN THE PERIOD. NEITHER
REGION EXHIBITED SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
MAINTAIN SIMPLE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE
BEEN QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8293 AND 8299 ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PRODUCING FREQUENT C-CLASS ACTIVITY WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED M-CLASS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS
MOSTLY AT HIGH LATITUDES. ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 12 AUG
IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE DSF/CME OBSERVED ON 08 AUG. QUIET TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 13 AUG.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 AUG-13 AUG
CLASS M    40/40/35
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 AUG 149
PREDICTED   11 AUG-13 AUG  150/150/145
90 DAY MEAN        10 AUG 111
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 AUG  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 AUG  009/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 AUG-13 AUG  012/015-025/025-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 AUG-13 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/40/20
MINOR STORM           10/25/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/50/25
MINOR STORM           15/35/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/05