:Product: 19980811RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Aug 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 223 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 AUG 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ISOLATED, MOSTLY OPTICALLY
UNCORROLATED MINOR C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
REGION 8293 (S22W44) IS SLOWLY DECAYING BUT STILL MAINTAINS MODERATE
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IN A BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION. REGION 8299
(N15E26) CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT OCCASIONAL PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND
SURGING BUT HAS OTHERWISE BEEN QUIET. REGION 8298 (N20W38)
EXPERIENCED MINOR GROWTH AND PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 10/2142Z. REMAINING
REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8293 AND 8299 ARE SHOWING SOME SLIGHT DECAY BUT
ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE
LARGE DSF/CME OBSERVED ON 08 AUG. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED BY DAY 2 AND 3.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 AUG-14 AUG
CLASS M    30/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 AUG 150
PREDICTED   12 AUG-14 AUG  150/145/145
90 DAY MEAN        11 AUG 111
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 AUG  013/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 AUG  009/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 AUG-14 AUG  025/025-015/015-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 AUG-14 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/20/10
MINOR STORM           25/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/25/15
MINOR STORM           35/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/01