:Product: 19980812RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Aug 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 224 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 AUG 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8293 (S23W58) PRODUCED
C1 SUBFLARES AT 12/1159Z AND AGAIN AT 12/1759Z. THIS REGION'S
MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION SIMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY AND OVERALL DECAY WAS
OBVIOUS IN BOTH WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA. REGION 8299 (N16E14) IS THE
LARGEST REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK COVERING 520 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE
LIGHT AREA. IT PRODUCED SEVERAL PLAGE ENHANCEMENTS IN THE PAST 24
HOURS BUT NO FLARES WERE OBSERVED. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS
NOTED. NEW REGION 8302 (S14E30) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 8293, THOUGH DECAYING, IS STILL QUITE ACTIVE AND CAPABLE OF
MORE C-CLASS ACTIVITY. REGION 8299 IS ALSO LIKELY TO PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES. BOTH REGIONS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
M-CLASS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE
CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING NIGHT TIME
HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS
MOSTLY AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 AUG-15 AUG
CLASS M    30/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 AUG 147
PREDICTED   13 AUG-15 AUG  145/145/140
90 DAY MEAN        12 AUG 112
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 AUG  004/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 AUG  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 AUG-15 AUG  010/013-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 AUG-15 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/10/10
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/20/15
MINOR STORM           25/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/01