:Product: 19980813RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Aug 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 225 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 AUG 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8297 (N32W16) PRODUCED
AN OPTICAL SUB-FLARE AT 13/0538UT AND HAS BEEN QUIET AND STABLE
SINCE THEN. REGION 8299 (N15W01) HAS BEEN SHOWING PLAGE ENHANCEMENTS
AND FLUCTUATIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THIS REGION PRODUCED 3 C-CLASS
X-RAY FLARES AND 5 OPTICAL SUB-FLARES. THE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION
HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX, RESULTING IN A CKO BETA-GAMMA-DELTA SPOT
GROUP. THE SIZE HAS REMAINED THE SAME AS YESTERDAY, AROUND 520
MILLIONTHS. REGION 8293 (S22W70) HAS SHOWN RENEWED ACTIVITY LATE IN
THE DAY WITH 2 C-CLASS FLARES. THE LARGEST WAS A C9/SF AT 13/1756UT.
THE MAUNA LOA SOLAR OBSERVATORY REPORTED A CORRESPONDING CME COMING
OFF OF THE WEST LIMB AT S30 AT 13/1800UT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
ACTIVITY WAS NOTED AND THE REST OF THE REGIONS WERE QUIET AND STABLE
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGIONS 8293 AND 8297 CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES. BOTH REGIONS ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRODUCING AN M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET  TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 AUG-16 AUG
CLASS M    30/20/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 AUG 137
PREDICTED   14 AUG-16 AUG  140/135/130
90 DAY MEAN        13 AUG 112
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 AUG  005/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 AUG  008/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 AUG-16 AUG  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 AUG-16 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01