:Product: 19980814RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Aug 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 226 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 AUG 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THIS WAS DUE TO A SINGLE
M-CLASS EVENT, AN M3/1N FROM REGION 8293 (S23W78) AT 14/0828UT. THIS
EVENT ALSO PRODUCED A TYPE II SWEEP. REGION 8293 IS THE PROCESS OF
CROSSING OVER THE WEST LIMB. ALTHOUGH ACTIVE EARLIER IN THE DAY IT
HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET SINCE 14/1000UT. THE OTHER ACTIVE REGION
HAS BEEN 8299 (N16W13). THE REGION HAS CHANGED LITTLE, STILL AROUND
510 MILLIONTHS WITH A CKO BETA-GAMMA-DELTA SPOT GROUP. THIS REGION
SHOWED SOME PLAGE ENHANCEMENTS AND PRODUCED 2 C-CLASS EVENTS EARLY
IN THE DAY. IT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE SINCE 14/0700UT. THE OTHER
REGIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY STABLE AND QUIET. A NEW REGION WAS
NUMBERED: REGION  8303 (N20E52).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 8293 HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRODUCING AN M-CLASS FLARE BEFORE
IT ROTATES OVER THE WEST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 AUG-17 AUG
CLASS M    30/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 AUG 137
PREDICTED   15 AUG-17 AUG  135/130/125
90 DAY MEAN        14 AUG 112
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 AUG  005/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 AUG  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 AUG-17 AUG  005/008-005/008-005/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 AUG-17 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01