:Product: 19980815RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Aug 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 227 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 AUG 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8293 PRODUCED A C7/SF
BEFORE ROTATING OVER THE WEST LIMB. THE OTHER TWO ACTIVE REGIONS
WERE 8297 (N31W40) AND 8299 (N16W26). BOTH REGIONS PRODUCED A MINOR
C-CLASS FLARE WITH CORRESPONDING OPTICAL SUB-FLARES. THE REST OF THE
SUN WAS QUIET AND STABLE. 3 NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: 8304
(S30E64), 8305 (S25E10), AND 8306 (N28E82). THE BACKGROUND X-RAY
FLUX HAS BEEN HIGH TODAY, IN THE RANGE OF B6-B8.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGIONS 8297 AND 8299 CAN BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE C-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 AUG-18 AUG
CLASS M    30/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 AUG 133
PREDICTED   16 AUG-18 AUG  130/125/125
90 DAY MEAN        15 AUG 112
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 AUG  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 AUG  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 AUG-18 AUG  005/008-010/020-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 AUG-18 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01