:Product: 19980816RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Aug 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::
SDF NUMBER 228 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 AUG 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A LONG DURATION M3
X-RAY FLARE AT 16/1821Z. THERE WERE CORRESPONDING TYPE II AND IV
SWEEPS FOR THIS EVENT BUT NO OPTICAL FLARES. THE REST OF THE DAY'S
ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE MAIN ACTIVE REGION WAS 8299 (N17W40) WHICH HAS
BEEN SHOWING NEARLY CONTINUOUS PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND SOME OPTICAL
SUBFLARES. THE OTHER ACTIVITY NOTED WAS SOME SURGING ON THE WEST
LIMB AS REGION 8300 (S27W96) ROTATED OVER. THE REST OF THE REGIONS
WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE. THE BACKGROUND X-RAY FLUX HAS REMAINED
RELATIVELY HIGH, IN THE RANGE OF B6 TO B9 FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 AUG-19 AUG
CLASS M    30/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 AUG 140
PREDICTED   17 AUG-19 AUG  130/130/130
90 DAY MEAN        16 AUG 113
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 AUG  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 AUG  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 AUG-19 AUG  010/020-010/015-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 AUG-19 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01