:Product: 19980817RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Aug 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 229 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 AUG 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  SEVERAL UNCORRELATED C-CLASS
X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED.  REGIONS 8280 AND 8282 ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  OPTICAL AND X-RAY SENSORS INDICATE THAT 8282
IS LARGE AND ENERGETIC.  REGION 8280 ALSO HAS A SIGNIFICANT X-RAY
SIGNATURE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR TOMORROW.  DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD, THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM AS A CORONAL HOLE ROTATES INTO A GEO-EFFECTIVE POSITION.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 AUG-20 AUG
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    25/25/25
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 AUG 136
PREDICTED   18 AUG-20 AUG  138/142/137
90 DAY MEAN        17 AUG 113
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 AUG  001/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 AUG  004/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 AUG-20 AUG  005/010-010/015-015/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 AUG-20 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/10/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/15/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05