:Product: 19980829RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Aug 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 241 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 AUG 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE
OBSERVED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A C5 AT
1836Z WHICH WAS NOT OBSERVED OPTICALLY. REGION 8307 (N32W52)
CONTRIBUTED AT LEAST ONE OF THE C-CLASS EVENTS AT 1535Z. THE GROUP
WAS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND STABLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION
8319 (N19W29) PRODUCED A FEW SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD AND
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN SIZE. REGION 8323 (S23E65) ROTATED FURTHER
INTO VIEW TODAY AND APPEARS TO BE A BIPOLAR GROUP WITH PENUMBRA IN
THE LEADER AND TRAILER.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW. HOWEVER, EACH OF THE REGIONS 8307, 8319 AND 8323
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN M-CLASS EVENT, SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THERE WERE SOME
ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIODS AT THE HIGH LATITUDES. ACE REAL-TIME
SOLAR WIND DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW DENSITY, HIGH SPEED STREAM
WITH WAVE-LIKE ACTIVITY IN THE BZ INTERPLANETARY FIELD. VARIATIONS
IN BZ DOWN TO -5 NT ARE UNDOUBTEDLY THE SOURCE OF THE ENHANCED
MAGNETIC ACTIVITY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES HAVE BEEN
HIGH. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN 24/2355Z ENDED
TODAY AT 29/1210Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, DECLINING
TO UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE BY THE THIRD DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 AUG-01 SEP
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     15/15/15
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 AUG 147
PREDICTED   30 AUG-01 SEP  150/150/140
90 DAY MEAN        29 AUG 118
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 AUG  026/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 AUG  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 AUG-01 SEP  015/015-015/015-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 AUG-01 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/20
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/40/35
MINOR STORM           20/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05