:Product: 19980901RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Sep 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 244 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 SEP 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8307 (N32W90)
PRODUCED AN M1/1F FLARE AT 0459Z. REGION 8323 (S23E30) CONTINUED TO
GROW AND IS NOW A LARGE (1230 MILLIONTHS) COMPACT SUNSPOT GROUP WITH
A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION. THE REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS
SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8319 (N19W68) ALSO PRODUCED
SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES, BUT DID NOT SHOW ANY GROWTH TREND AND HAS
A SIMPLE, BETA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY MODERATE. THE CONTINUED GROWTH, COMPLEXITY, AND
MAGNETIC FIELD STRENGTHS IN REGION 8323, HOWEVER, IMPLY THAT THERE
IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE EVENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND CONDITIONS
APPEARED TO BE TRANSITIONING FROM THE HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY FLOW
OF THE LAST FEW DAYS, TO A SLOWER, SOMEWHAT HIGHER DENSITY THAT IS
CHARACTERISTIC OF NORMAL QUIESCENT SOLAR WIND. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED, WITH A FEW ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED BY
DAY THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 SEP-04 SEP
CLASS M    70/65/65
CLASS X    20/20/20
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 SEP 177
PREDICTED   02 SEP-04 SEP  170/165/150
90 DAY MEAN        01 SEP 121
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 AUG  012/022
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 SEP  010/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 SEP-04 SEP  015/015-015/012-005/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 SEP-04 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/15
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/15
MINOR STORM           20/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05