:Product: 19980902RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Sep 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 245 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 SEP 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8319
(N19W81) PRODUCED AN M2/SF FLARE AT 02/1707UT. THERE WERE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NOTED IN THIS STRUCTURALLY SIMPLE SPOT GROUP.
REGION 8323 (S22E16) REMAINED THE FOCUS OF INTEREST, GIVEN ITS LARGE
AREA (1430 MILLIONS) AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. IT PRODUCED SEVERAL
C-CLASS SUBFLARES. ASIDE FROM A GRADUAL INCREASE IN AREA, NO
REMARKABLE CHANGES WERE OBSERVED WITHIN THIS REGION. NEW REGION 8325
(S28E47), A SMALL A-TYPE GROUP, WAS ASSIGNED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE WITH M-CLASS FLARES POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8323 AND 8319.
THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGION 8323.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS OCCURRED AT SOME HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS DURING
THE FIRST TWO DAYS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE FINAL DAY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 SEP-05 SEP
CLASS M    70/60/60
CLASS X    20/20/20
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 SEP 163
PREDICTED   03 SEP-05 SEP  155/150/145
90 DAY MEAN        02 SEP 121
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 SEP  013/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 SEP  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 SEP-05 SEP  012/012-015/012-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 SEP-05 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/35/30
MINOR STORM           10/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/35
MINOR STORM           10/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/01