:Product: 19980905RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 248 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 SEP 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8323
(S22W23) REMAINED LARGE WITH MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND
DISPLAYED NO SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OR DECAY. IT PRODUCED ISOLATED
C-CLASS SUBFLARES. REGION 8326 (N21E50) ALSO PRODUCED ISOLATED
C-CLASS SUBFLARES, BUT WAS GENERALLY STABLE. NEW REGION 8329
(N15E52) WAS NUMBERED TODAY; IT WAS FORMERLY CONSIDERED THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF REGION 8326.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8323 MAY PRODUCE M-CLASS FLARES. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH
LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE
LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 SEP-08 SEP
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 SEP 154
PREDICTED   06 SEP-08 SEP  150/150/150
90 DAY MEAN        05 SEP 123
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 SEP  004/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 SEP  004/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 SEP-08 SEP  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 SEP-08 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           20/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01