:Product: 19980906RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Sep 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 249 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 SEP 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES
OCCURRED. MOST FLARES ORIGINATED IN REGIONS 8323 (S22W36) AND 8326
(N22E39). REGION 8323 REMAINS THE LARGEST AND APPARENTLY THE MOST
COMPLEX GROUP ON THE DISK. NEITHER OF THESE REGIONS HAVE CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. NEW REGIONS 8330 (S20E68) AND 8331
(N25E74) WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 8323 AND 8326.
REGION 8323 APPEARS CAPABLE OF ENERGETIC FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH. A MINOR ENHANCEMENT OF THE
GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX (ABOUT 1 PFU) OCCURRED EARLY IN THE
DAY. THE SOURCE OF THE PROTONS WAS NOT IMMEDIATELY CLEAR.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 SEP-09 SEP
CLASS M    45/45/45
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 SEP 165
PREDICTED   07 SEP-09 SEP  150/150/150
90 DAY MEAN        06 SEP 123
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 SEP  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 SEP  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 SEP-09 SEP  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 SEP-09 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01