:Product: 19980907RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Sep 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 250 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 SEP 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGIONS 8323 (S22W50) AND 8326
(N22E25) CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SMALL FLARES. BOTH REGIONS REMAIN IN
ABOUT THE SAME CONDITION AS YESTERDAY. REGION 8328 (S17E33) ALSO
GENERATED A FEW SUBFLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8323 AND 8326 ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
FLARE PRODUCERS. REGION 8323 IS THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR
ENERGETIC FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 SEP-10 SEP
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 SEP 151
PREDICTED   08 SEP-10 SEP  150/150/145
90 DAY MEAN        07 SEP 124
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 SEP  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 SEP  003/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 SEP-10 SEP  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 SEP-10 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01