:Product: 19980908RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Sep 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 251 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 SEP 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SMALL FLARES CONTINUED IN
REGIONS 8323 (S22W64) AND 8326 (N22 E12). BOTH REGIONS APPEAR TO BE
SHOWING SIGNS OF DECAY. REGION 8329 (N14E11) IS GROWING. NEW REGION
8332 (S27E12) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, PRIMARILY IN
REGIONS 8323 AND 8326. AN ISOLATED ENERGETIC FLARE MAY OCCUR IN
8323.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE CONDITIONS
WERE OBSERVED AT MANY LOCATIONS FROM 08/00-06Z. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 SEP-11 SEP
CLASS M    40/40/30
CLASS X    05/05/01
PROTON     05/05/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 SEP 154
PREDICTED   09 SEP-11 SEP  150/145/140
90 DAY MEAN        08 SEP 124
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 SEP  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 SEP  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 SEP-11 SEP  005/009-005/009-005/009
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 SEP-11 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01