:Product: 19980909RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Sep 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 252 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 SEP 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN M2 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED
AT 09/0458Z. THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TYPE II/IV SWEEP
EVENTS AND A DISCRETE RADIO BURST THAT INCLUDED 310 SFU AT 2695 MHZ.
ALTHOUGH NO OPTICAL FLARE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED AT SEC, OBSERVATIONS
MADE THROUGH CLOUDS AT LEARMONTH SOLAR OBSERVATORY SUGGEST THAT
REGION 8323 (S22W77) WAS THE SOURCE. THIS REGION IS DECAYING AS IT
APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. IN ADDITION TO THE M-CLASS FLARE, SMALL
FLARES OCCURRED IN REGIONS 8328 (S18E08), 8329 (N14W02), AND 8331
(N26E41). NEW REGION 8333 (N12W27) EMERGED ON THE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM A VARIETY OF
ACTIVE REGIONS, INCLUDING 8323, 8326, 8328, 8329, AND 8331. REGION
8323 MAY PRODUCE AN M-CLASS FLARE BEFORE IT ROTATES OUT OF VIEW
AROUND THE WEST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 SEP-12 SEP
CLASS M    40/30/20
CLASS X    05/01/01
PROTON     05/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 SEP 145
PREDICTED   10 SEP-12 SEP  140/130/125
90 DAY MEAN        09 SEP 124
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 SEP  006/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 SEP  008/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 SEP-12 SEP  010/009-010/009-010/009
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 SEP-12 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01