:Product: 19980910RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Sep 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 253 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 SEP 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, BASED ON TWO SMALL UNCORRELATED
C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS. IN ADDITION, MINOR SUBFLARES WERE REPORTED
FROM REGIONS 8328 (S17W08), 8329 (N14W18), AND 8333 (N12W41). WITH
TODAYS DEPARTURE OF REGION 8323 (S27W84) AROUND THE WEST LIMB,
REGIONS 8329, 11-SPOT 'ESO' BETA, AND 8331 (N26E24), 15-SPOT 'DAO'
BETA, ARE THE MOST COMPLEX OF THE SEVEN ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON
THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
WITH C-CLASS EVENTS POSSIBLE FROM ANY ONE OF REGIONS 8328, 8329,
8331, AND 8333.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 SEP-13 SEP
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 SEP 142
PREDICTED   11 SEP-13 SEP  140/135/130
90 DAY MEAN        10 SEP   124
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 SEP  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 SEP  005/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 SEP-13 SEP  005/009-010/009-010/009
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 SEP-13 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01